Study On The Influence Of Beijing City Structure Adjustment Of Energy Consumption On Carbon Intensity

Beijing city in the future development plan put forward in the "13th Five-Year" period, Beijing city to achieve the overall economic and social "good and fast" development goals. However, in the process of achieving this goal, the most important is to reduce the degree of pollution of the environment of economic development. At present, Beijing has taken corresponding measures to deal with the environment problem brought in economic development, and have achieved certain results, but there is still great potential. A lot of investment in Beijing economic growth mainly depends on the energy, this economic growth led directly to the carbon emissions intensity is too high,serious environmental pollution and energy utilization efficiency is low, etc.. The city of Beijing has done a lot of work in reducing carbon emission intensity, from Beijing city in the last few years, mainly the implementation of corresponding policies and regulations through the formulation and adjustment of energy consumption structure from the aspects of macro regulation, coordination and optimization of different types of energy in primary energy consumption accounted for the proportion to achieve. With the rapid development of the economy of Beijing City, Beijing City, energy use has also started to adjust, primary energy consumption of various types of accounts for the proportion of total energy consumption is also continuously changing. To sum up, to study the influence of carbon intensity in Beijing energy consumption structure has a very important significance.Based on this, we see the relevant literature, with three kinds of energy consumption structure adjustment scenarios to reduce carbon intensity as the main line was established based on Markov prediction of Beijing City, adjust the structure of energy consumption model and empirical research. From the perspective of qualitative and quantitative,divided into three scenarios of pattern is "no energy consumption structure constraint programming" "energy consumption structure constraint programming", "to guide the oil consumption ratio target” are calculated respective Markov processes average transition probability matrix. Then, according to the current situation of energy consumption structure in Beijing and the transition probability matrix of the three scenarios, the energy consumption structure of Beijing city is studied. Get "no energy consumption structure planning constraints", "energy consumption structure planning constraints", "oil consumption under the guidance of the proportion of target," the future of the three scenarios of energy consumption structure adjustment in Beijing city. And calculates the carbon emission intensity under the three scenarios of Beijing's energy consumption structure, and between the different situations of the adjustment of energy consumptionstructure results and carbon intensity were analyzed and discussed, final adjustment of energy consumption structure effect on the carbon intensity of mechanism. Through this study found that energy consumption structure adjustment to reduce the carbon emissions intensity have significant effect. Among them, the "planning of energy consumption structure without constraints" scenario, which has just been completed carbon emission intensity decreased 40%- 50% of the ideal goal. "Planning of energy consumption structure constraint" scenario, the carbon emission intensity in 2020 than in 2005 dropped by 52%, exceeding the decline in carbon intensity goal 40%-45%. "The oil consumption ratio target guide" in the context of carbon emission intensity in 2020 than in 2005 dropped by 61.7%, exceeding the decline in carbon intensity goal 40%-45%. To reduce the carbon emissions of Beijing, made a great contribution. Therefore, Beijing can be sustained through the optimization of energy consumption structure adjustment, to achieve energy-saving emission reduction, promote the development of low carbon economy.