Study On Temporal-spatial Patterns And Influencing Factors Of Ecological Deficit Or Ecological Surplus Of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is the leading area of China's economic development and social development,but the rapid economic development has already caused serious environmental problems.It is very important to evaluate whether the ecological carrying capacity can meet the human needs in this region and judge the regional sustainable development.The ecological footprint model is an important method for quantitative evaluation of regional sustainability.Based on the theory and method of ecological footprint,this paper took 26 cities in Yangtze River Delta city as the research object,and used the statistical data and remote sensing data to calculate the ecological deficit(or supplus)of 26 cities in Yangtze River Delta.At the same time,hierarchical clustering method,two-way ANOVA analysis and partial least-squares were used to analyze the differences of ecological deficit or surplus and the influencing factors.The results are as follows:(1)Temporal and spatial patterns analysis.In 2000,2005 and 2010,the total ecological footprint of 23 cities were growing,the per capita ecological footprint of 20 cities were growing,the spatial distribution of ecological footprint was uneven,and the difference was significant among the cities.The total ecological carrying capacity and the per capita ecological carrying capacity of the three years did not change a lot,and Anhui Province was significantly higher than other cities.The total ecological deficit and the per capita ecological deficit are consistent with the change of the total ecological footprint and the per capita ecological footprint,and the spatial distribution is also uneven.The total ecological deficit of the big cities is higher than other cities,and the distribution of per capita ecological s in 2010 is decreasing from the southwest to the northeast(except for Nanjing and Ma'anshan).(2)Structural characteristics analysis.The structure of per capita ecological footprint of 26 cities in 2000,2005 and 2010 tended to be similar.And could be divided into five categories in 2010.The structure of per capita ecological carrying capacity changed little,and also could be divided into five categories in 2010.The structure of per capita ecological deficit or surplus of 26 cities in 2000,2005 and 2010 tended to be similar too.The change of the structure of per capita ecological deficit or surplus was mainly determined by the change of per capita energy deficit.It could be divided into four categories in 2010.(3)Influencing factors analysis.There were significant differences in the total ecological footprint and total ecological deficit of different scales' cities,but there was no significant difference in the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological deficit.The total ecological footprint has a significant positive correlation with population,industrial output value,GDP and so on.The per ecological footprintwas not significantly associated with all factors.The total ecological deficit is positively correlated with population,industrial output value,GDP and so on.The per capita ecological deficit was not significantly associated with all factors.In this paper,the study on the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration is of great significance to measure the sustainable development of this region.It will provide theoretical support for the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,and provide reference for other areas to coordinate social,economic and environmental sustainable development.