Research And Apply On Prediction Model Of Surface Subsidence In Goaf

In recent years,with the continuous development of the society and economy,and puts forward new requirements for the construction of transportation.This will inevitably lead to the road network through a number of mineral resources mined out area,which is the most widely used way of coal resources goaf,thus causing the most serious harm.The surface subsidence of mined out area will not only cause harm to road traffic,but also threaten people's life and property safety.So how to predict the surface subsidence of the mined out area,and analyze the settlement results,and then take timely measures to deal with the ground surface subsidence,this is now the community to solve the problem.In this paper,the goaf of a highway is taken as the research object,by collecting a large amount of survey data and related literature firstly,according to the study area of goaf Surface Subsidence Analysis of simple disease situation,and based on the data analysis of the existing diseases,the development trend and the safety of the system are predicted and evaluated,and the monitoring and early warning measures for settlement and cracking are established according to the relevant specifications and engineering analogy.In order to predict and analyze gob surface subsidence,this paper further mined out area on the uneven surface subsidence induced by underground mining of the principle was analyzed,and the uneven settlement of subgrade and pavement evaluation criteria have been summarized.In order to monitor a highway gob under nearly two and a half years after the value of screening data calculated on the basis of theory,analysis of the current settlement prediction model commonly used after the selected MMF prediction model and exponential-Knothe model as the basis of the research model.In this paper,a new model of settlement prediction is proposed based on the previous literatures:(1)The combined settlement prediction model proposed in this paper can well represent the uneven settlement of ground surface,moreover,the goodness of fit,precision and stability of the model are better than the traditional single settlement prediction model,The practicability and feasibility of the model are proved.(2)Compared with several single prediction models in the paper,it is found that the combined forecasting model has the following advantages:(a)Compared with other prediction formulas,the combination forecasting formula is simple and easy to obtain;(b)The prediction results are closer to the actual monitoring values than other single prediction models.(3)In the measured data values under the condition of reasonable and effective,the predicted value obtained by the combined model is slightly larger than the actual settlement value,it shows that the model has high safety factor and is feasible in engineering application.By using the Midas/GTS software to establish a three-dimensional model of goaf under a highway,analysis of the goaf area of uneven settlement results and combined forecast model calculation results were analyzed after the proof of settlement are presented in this paper to predict the combination model is feasible and can be applied to practical engineering go ahead on the road in goaf subsidence prediction and evaluation of road traffic safety warning,take timely measures to ensure the safety of people's lives and property.