Application Of Information Entropy Theory In Accident Analysis And Prediction Of Large-scale Production System

With the rapid development of our society and economy,China's manufacturing enterprises have been expanded rapidly from a simple,small-scale,assembled production system to a large scale,and established a complete and independent manufacturing system.Manned spaceflight,large aircraft,high-speed rail equipment and so on.As a large-scale production system for manufacturing and processing product,not only has it large-scale,comprehensive and complex characteristics but also include high energy storage equipment,complicated production process.Therefore,there is a possibility of occurrence of various accidents.At present,the situation of our country's safety in production is still very serious,so it is especially important to analyze and predict the accident of large production system.Firstly,this paper systematically summarizes the domestic and foreign research status of accident analysis and prediction,The existing problems in accident analysis and prediction are analyzed.And the concept of information entropy theory is introduced,the development and application of information entropy are also introduced in detail.Based on the viewpoint of system theory.On the one hand,both people and objects are information in a production system,this system also is an imbalance unstable system.On the other hand,the interaction of the elements within the system will lead to an increase in the entropy of the system that the state of the system develops in the direction of disordering.If the cluster of information does not input the system,it will become unstable and easily lead to casualties and financial losses in accident.Secondly,A large production system is investigated by the amount of information contained in four aspects of human,object,environment and management,and 10 evaluation indexes are obtained from all aspects of the risk information.The optimal synthetical appraise method is used to evaluate the data of the enterprise for 10 years of light injury,serious injury,death and safety,and the comprehensive evaluation value is obtained.Then,the information entropy model is used to predict the minor injury,the heavy injury and the death rate per thousand persons in a certain period of time.Thus,the result obtained can be used as corresponding basis and reference opinions of the safety management in enterprises.