Temporal And Spatial Characteristics And Forecast Of Pollution Load Of Livestock And Poultry Excrement In Shandong Province

With the rapid development of modern agricultural economy,the problem of agricultural pollution has been paid more and more attention.The environmental impacts caused by agricultural pollution is increasingly significant for human daily life,agricultural production and sustainable development of social economy.It has become an important limiting factor for the construction of ecological civilization and the healthy development of green ecological agriculture.As one of the main sources of agricultural non-point source pollution,livestock and poultry breeding pollution has caused increasingly serious damage to the ecological environment,and has become a hot research topic at home and abroad.Shandong province is a big agricultural province in China,it is also a strong province of livestock and poultry breeding,animal husbandry is developed,and the pollution problem of livestock and poultry breeding is also very prominent.This paper,based on the quantity and structure of livestock and poultry breeding,used the PSR(pressure-state-response)model to calculate the“pressure index”(pollutant production,pollutant loss amounts,equal standard emission,etc.),“state index”(warning value of load of livestock manure of cultivated land,equal-standard pollution index)and“response index”(control area)to clarify the risk of livestock manure on farmland and water pollution in various regions of Shandong province,and comprehensive analyzed the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation,the trend of future development and the countermeasures of prevention and control and so on.It provided basic data for the development planing of livestock breeding industry,and had important sense to realize the green,ecological,healthy and sustainable development of animal husbandry in Shandong Province.The main conclusions of the study were as follows:(1)From the time scale,983.37×10~4t pollutants were produced by the livestock and poultry manure in Shandong province in 2015.The production of pollutants was COD>TN>TP.Poultry and pigs manure were the most important livestock and poultry manure pollution source in Shandong province.The total loss of pollution reached 115.19×10~4t,and the total amount of equal-standard pollutant emission was 65.94×10~100 m~3,and TP was the most important water livestock and poultry manure pollutant in Shandong province.The phosphorus(P)pollution of soil in the whole province was more serious.The load of livestock manure and TN load in farmland did not exceed the maximum value;The index of water equal-standard pollutant was39.14,and the water faced serious pollution risk.In the 17 cities,Weifang ranked first about the amount of pollutants and pollution load of livestock and poultry feces.From 2006 to 2015,output and loss of livestock and poultry manure,the load of TP and TN in farmland and equal standard emission showed a trend of decreasing-increasing-steady in the whole province;In the past 10 years,the pollution risk level of livestock and poultry manure in farmland in Shandong province was between?-?.The threaten of pollution for farmland was serious,and the water pollution was more serious,the risk level of which was between?-?.(2)From the spatial distribution,the pollution of livestock and poultry manure showed strong regional differentiation characteristics in Shandong province,and the high value areas were mainly located in the western and the middle east region.Yangxin,Laixi,Zhangqiu were facing bigger farmland pollution risk.Dezhou,Weifang,Jining,Qingdao had the most serious water pollution threaten.The analysis result of gravity center model showed that the migration distance of barycenter(pollutants yield,the livestock and poultry manure pollution load in farmland,pollutants loss amounts)were very small,and kept unchanged basically.Based on thecomprehensive environmental effect control area,17 cities in the whole province were divided into four primary control regions of severe pollution(including nine subregions),five secondary control regions of moderate pollution(including eleven subregions),eight three-level control regions of slight pollution(including eighteen subregions).Among them,Dezhou,Weifang,Qingdao and Liaocheng belonged to the primary control areas,which had the highest pollution risk resulted from the livestock and poultry manure.(3)The forecast results showed that,ignoring the intervention of the policy,the number of pigs,sheep and poultry have shown an increasing trend in 2016-2025,but the cattle.The produced and lost amount of pollutants in 2025 will increase by 27%compared with that in 2015.In 2025,the load of livestock and poultry manure in Shandong province will reach 35.75t/hm~2,and the risk of pollution of cultivated land will increase from grade III to grade?,causing serious pollution to cultivated land.The load of TP and TN of cultivated land will reach47.75kg/hm~2 and 179.83kg/hm~2 respectively,all of which will exceed the limit standard of cultivated land,and the pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus in cultivated land will be aggravating.