| The South-North Water Transfer Project is a strategic infrastructure to optimize the water resource allocation in our country,and it is of significant effect to Huang-Huai-Hai area,especially to Beijing-Tianjin and North China.This project will bring in remarkable benefit to the society,economy and environment,including alleviating the shortage of water resource,improving the ecological environment and guarantying the safety of crops.According to the planning,the Middle-Route and East-Route in the project will transfer 14.8 billion m3 and 13 billion m3 water respectively to 2030,and it will almost solve the problems of water resource shortage and water supply for ecological environment engineering in the intake area.Referring to the<South-North Water Transfer Project General Plan>,the near-term objective of the project will emphasize the urban domestic and industrial water.Partly considering the agricultural and ecological water,it will make a replacement to return the water diverted by living and industry to agriculture and ecology step by step.Based on the background,this article aimed at the calculation of the agricultural water consumption which was diverted by city in the intake cities.Firstly,it analyzed the current and development status of water recourse from 1997 to 2007 in the intake area,especially the change of agricultural water.Then,from the aspects of supply and use,a systematic research on the estimate methods of the diverted volume of agricultural water was made,along with the calculation formula and the doctrine of parameters determination.Take Beijing and Henan Intake Area as examples,this article employed the changing volume of the agricultural water method and the changing volume of reservoir supply method to analyze the diverted volume of water.At last,considering the return water consumption,water resource allocation and policy guarantee mechanism,return feasibility of the diverted agricultural water consumption was analyzed and a preliminary return plan was proposed.The main research results are as follows:(1)From 1997 to 2007,the precipitation and water resources quantity in the five study provinces(cities)presented fluctuate and were mostly less than the average in no small measure.In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area,these two indicators tended descendant and were less than the normal value of accumulated year since 1988.The fluctuating figure was also seen in Henan and Shandong Province.As to water supply,it declined mainly year by year and the decrease of surface water was obviously more than that of underwater.While it comes to water utilization,except for the increase of domestic water consumption,the volume of industrial and agricultural water shrank year by year and the water consume of agriculture was slightly fluctuating.(2)Form the view point of water supply and water use,this article gives some methods to calculate the diverted water consumption in agriculture,calculated the agricultural water was diverted in the receiving area.Employing the changing volume of agricultural water method,the diverted agriculture water consumption were 168 million m3 and 450 million m3 in 2000 and 2007 respectively,while they were 91 million m3 and 231 million m3 in Henan Province using the changing volume of reservoir supply method.Restricted by the data,the diverted volume of agricultural water were 817 million m3 and 1.533 billion m3 in 2000 and 2007 respectively when using the changing volume of reservoir supply method.(3)Proposed the return of the progromm after the implementation of the South-North Water Transfer Project.With the rough estimate of the volume of available return water and the qualitative research of water resource allocation engineering and policy guarantee mechanism,this article showed it was available to return the diverted water in agriculture in the intake cities and a few return schemes,transferring water using for agriculture,direct and indirect replacement and tradable water right,were proposed based on the above. |
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