Consider The Risk Constraints Of Hydro-thermal Power Generation In Real-time Strategy Of Control

With the completion and commissioning of hydropower stations have developed numerous basins across the country, a hydro-thermal Freemasons grid pattern has been gradually formed, complex electric power system forms a series concern at the forefront of its operation, control and management process and hot research question, the urgent need to carry out research and application, in order to achieve regional security and economic stability of power system operation and energy resource optimization. Meanwhile, the runoff change and hydropower grid load fluctuations, the researchers considered abandoned water and contribute to inadequate risk of hydro-thermal power generation control real-time strategy, to improve water use efficiency and to ensure the station's power grid security and stability is important.Around abandoned water runoff and contribute to the problem of insufficient randomness may result, first established Hydropower Station Generation Scheduling Model Uncertainty, followed by the use of estimates based on non-parametric kernel density inflow of short-term runoff prediction method to analyze the inflow uncertainty risk of abandoned water station led to risks and uncertainties that contribute to inadequate risk of grid load, carry out the relevant analysis of the problem has practical significance. In this paper, the production of short-term power generation plan, hydroelectric real-time load distribution, risk analysis research status, respect under the influence of short-term uncertainty analysis and risk control in real time runoff forecasts of hydro-thermal power generation adjustment, mainly carried out the following work:(1)Analysis of the preparation and execution of short-term(daily) generation program, modeled cascade hydropower stations under uncertain conditions, short-term(days) generation program, gives power planning method, the preparation of Qingjiang Power Station Daily Generation Scheduling.(2)Risk factors for water and electricity may be involved in the scheduling process, the process of considering runoff uncertainty on hydropower unit output, analyze the impact hydropower abandoned water shortage risk and contribute to the risk of the load on the power grid, using estimates based on short-term non-parametric kernel density runoff runoff forecasting methods, given the range of the range forecast runoff, reducing forecast error runoff, using Monte Carlo sampling on this basis, we propose real-time power control in less than two abandoned water and contribute to the risk of conditions adjustment strategy.(3)Qingjiang cascade hydropower stations based on data considered separately inflow increase and decrease runoff two conditions for abandoned water shortage risk and contribute to the short-term impact of power plant generation schedule risk model was simulated to verify the calculation and analysis, selected a group of samples statistics of the number of water and contribute less risk and probability of occurrence abandoned, the results showed that the proposed method can provide text prediction intervals and probabilistic analysis results of the risk caused by runoff against random, it has a certain rationality.