Study And Design Of Risk Warning Upon Transformer Automatic Verification System

With the rapid development of the electronic power industry and technology, transformers are more and more widely used in all walks of life. The automatic verification system for low-voltage current transformers realizes automatization, informatization and standardization in transformer verification. However, the verification system faces many risk factors during the course of actual operation. In order to reduce, even to eliminate the loss caused by risks of the verification system, it is necessary to do risk valuation and risk early warning upon the automatic verification system.Various theoretical techniques and methods such as decision making theory and method, risk management theory, mathematical statistics, applied mathematics are combined in this thesis. Taking China’s first low voltage current transformer automation verification system, which is jointly developed by China Electric Power Research Institute Wuhan NARI Limited Liability Company, North China Power Grid Co. Ltd. as the research object, according to the requirements of system verification, risk assessment and risk early-warning are studied systematically. Firstly, through access to external information and direct inquiry method, we analyze demands of automatic testing system and identify risk factors; then by means of BP artificial neural network algorithm, the state value for every single risk index and its corresponding degree of membership can be predicted,it effectively helps to reduce the time to remove the fault factors in the system; Combining with fuzzy comprehensive-AHP method, the final overall risk level of the verification automatic system can be obtained, thus the corresponding risk warning measures can be determined; Finally, the actual case analysis on the verification automatic system is used, showing the feasibility of the method.On the basis of research on risk early warning, a actual case study on low-voltage current transformer automatic verification system has been carried out. The risk assessment and early warning method adopted will ensure safe, reliable operation of the automatic verification system well. It will also provide effective guarantee for the development of the electricity power cause in our country.