| The city gas plays an important role in the life of the people and social construction, The carrying way-the city gas pipe network will be rapidly developed and popularized. However, due to the city gas is flammable, explosive and so on,Once the pipeline fail to result in leakage and secondary disasters (such as poisoning, suffocation, explosion, combustion),the consequences are quite serious.Not only it leads to the waste of resources, loss of property,and even leads to more serious casualties and environmental pollution,and gas stop maintenance will bring inconvenience in life for most of the gas user,which affect the normal operation of city gas.In the process of gas from input to use, Due to the reasons of pipeline equipment itself, personnel cognitive operation, environmental factors and other issues,often result in major gas accidents.Especially now with gas pipeline to large-capacity, long distance and multistage pressure system for integrated network development, The complexity and uncertainty of multi factors, How to reduce the risk of pipeline operation and improve the reliability of the pipeline is particularly important, So it is of great significance to analyze and study the reliability of urban gas pipeline network.First of all,from the theory of the connectivity of network system, it establishs several connectivity reliability index between gas users, system and source.Considered from the connectivity reliability and the connectedness importance degree of pipe,through the example analysis and research on the impact factors of pipe network system reliability:gas source location and quantity, pipe location and network structure.In addition, Concrete analysis of the influence of the structural form of the pipe network on the system reliability through the actual case,. At the same time, The influence of different pipe sections on the reliability of pipe network is discussed. Thus,A fairly method to analysis the connectedness reliability of gas pipe network is formed.Secondly, according to the gas supply system to make reliability analysis based on Bayesian network,Which should follow the steps of establishing fault tree, establishing a directed acyclic graph and conditional probability tables, completing all kinds of required probability expressions, software solution.Firstly, by establishing the fault tree of gas network,the corresponding directed acyclic graph and conditional probability tables, Combined with the conditional independence and the chain rule, completing expression of the various requirements of probability,Then the reliability analysis is carried out by software solution. In addition, Combined with practical case, Analysis and discussion on it, A feasible method and measure to improve the reliability of the pipe network is put forward from the point of view of fault maintenance. And discusses the state of the component cannot be represented by single probability form,It was pointed out that using the interval Bayesian networks is to achieve network reliability analysis method,Which is a strong complement development measure when system reliability is analysised for basic data acquisition lack or insufficient evidence.Finally, the reliability management method of urban gas pipeline network is proposed. From two aspects of gas network is divided into stage management and hierarchical management to establish the idea of network reliability analysis. According to the gas network stages management concept, Throughout the entire life cycle of gas pipe network,From product design, operation, fault repair and failure to replace stage respectively expounds the characteristics of each stage of the pipeline and the concrete measures for improving the reliability of the system.Based on the gas pipeline network hierarchical management idea,The paper brings forward the method and target of the network reliability classification management. combining with the pipe network in stages and classification management concept can solve the actual problems are described in detail. |
PDF Full Text Request