Research On Ice Regime Forecast Model And Ice Flood Risk In The Inner Mongolia Reach Of The Yellow River

Due to the special geographical position, hydro-meteorological conditions and river course characteristics, ice flood almost occurs every year in the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River. Ice flood disaster makes great threat to national property and people's lives. Relevant departments can be prepared for ice prevention in advance by research on change laws of ice regime and ice regime forecast. Ice jam or ice dam is liable to cause ice flood in the period of freeze-up and break-up. Ice flood risk analysis can provide decision basis for ice prevention and mitigation work to reduce disaster loss. It has important significance for national economy and sustainable development of society.At first, the ice regime information feature in Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River is elaborated in the paper. The ice flood causes and factors are analyzed. Influencing factors Mainly include dynamic factor?thermodynamic factor?river regime factor and human factor.Based on the meteorological and hydrological measured data of main controllers, the change characteristics and laws of ice regime in the Inner Mongolia reach are discussed. With the temperature and flow increasing, ice run date and freeze-up date push back, break-up date brings forward and the maximum ice thickness thins obviously. Due to the use of upstream reservoirs, water storage is on the rise.The appropriate predictors are extracted on the basis of analyzing the ice flood causes. Neural networks model?multiple linear model and support vector machine model are built respectively. Compared with the results of multiple models, neural networks model is applied to forecast the ice run?freeze-up and break-up date of shizuishan station?sanhuhekou station and toudaoguai station. The results show that the average pass rate of each hydrological station is more than 90%.In 2008 ice flood period, dike burst occurred at Inner Mongolia reach. This historical ice flood is adopted to verify ice flood calculation model. The simulation results and actual situation of historical flood are basically consistent. Ice flood is simulated by use of the model which is reasonable.Forecast model established in this paper has high accuracy. The research results can provide reference on ice regime forecast in the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River. Ice flood calculation model can better simulate ice flood risk after dike burst. Calculation accuracy meets the requirement and the simulation results can provide scientific basis for correct decision of flood prevention department and disaster prevention and reduction.