Assessment Of Ice Flood Risk And Disaster Loss On The Inner Mongolia Reach Of The Yellow River

Ice flood disasters occur frequently in Hetao Plain of Inner Mongolia where the Yellow River transits.Due to the influence of various factors such as unique river conditions and climate characteristics in Inner Mongolia,the situation of Ice flood is complex and changeable,and it is difficult to prevent and control Ice flood.Therefore,the disaster risk assessment and loss evaluation in the areas with frequent Ice flood disasters can provide a reference for the scientific planning and reasonable deployment of the relevant departments in the prevention and mitigation of Ice flood disasters,and provide a theoretical basis for the continuation of the Ice flood prevention project before the disaster and the start of the relocation rescue,material support and recovery of production after the disaster.Taking Bayan Nur City in houtao plain in Inner Mongolia as an example,the driving factors of the Ice flood disaster were analyzed,and the Ice flood disaster risk assessment model was established based on the catastrophe theory,and the Ice flood disaster risk assessment was completed.At the same time,in order to test the catastrophe theory evaluation results,the fuzzy optimization theory was introduced to conduct a second evaluation of the Ice flood disaster risk in the risk area,which verified the rationality of the catastrophe theory evaluation results.Finally,five risk areas in houtao plain and the qiantao plain in Inner Mongolia were selected to establish an ice flood disaster loss evaluation model,and the loss evaluation of historical typical disaster cases in each risk area was carried out,aiming to provide post-disaster for relevant departments in areas with frequent disasters.Theoretical basis for emergency rescue.The main research results are as follows:(1)Based on the catastrophe theory to evaluate the Ice flood disaster risk in 5 banner counties and districts along the Yellow River in Bayan Nur City.The risk levels are as follows: Dengkou County(0.956)is a very high-risk area;Hangjin Rear Banner(0.923),Linhe District(0.907)is a high-risk area;Urad Front Banner(0.899)and Wuyuan County(0.885)are a medium-risk area.The risk level of each risk area generally shows a trend of declining from upstream to downstream.(2)The fuzzy optimization method was used to conduct a second evaluation of the five banners,counties and districts along the Yellow River in Bayan Nur City.The results are basically consistent with the results of the mutation evaluation method,and the trend of the risk area level change is exactly the same,and it is basically consistent with the historical risk comparison.This verifies the feasibility and rationality of catastrophe theory applied to Ice flood disaster risk assessment.(3)Select typical disaster cases from 5 banner counties in the Hetao Plain of Inner Mongolia to evaluate the disaster loss.The order of loss is from the largest to the smallest:Hanggin rear banner(0.973)was a severe disaster in 2008,and Dengkou County in 1993(0.954)Severe disaster,Dalat Banner in 1996(0.837),Togtoh,Qingshuihe,and Jungar Banner three banner counties(0.805)in 1999 were severely affected,and Urad Front Banner(0.739)in 1993 was moderately affected;The evaluation result is basically consistent with the actual loss,which verifies the reliability of the evaluation result.