Analysis On Saturated Load Impact Factor And The Research On Forecast Method

With the acceleration of urbanization construction in China, because of the limitation of factors such as the urban land resources, geographical environment, environment protection, city planning, the synchronization and coordination problem between the urban power grid construction and urban development is increasingly prominenting. Saturated load as the constraint conditions of urban power grid vision, can determine the final size of the city grid. Long-term planning guide the construction of the recent to ensure the efficient and rapid development of electric power construction, which has important guiding significance to urban power grid construction and renovation, conducive to promote urban power grid construction and adapt to social and economic planning and coordinated development.Saturated load and society economic tie most closely. Population, environment, industrial structure, technological level and the local government policies are closely related. This paper analyzes social economic growth characteristics and load characteristics of the typical developed countries and citiesat at different stages of economic development; Combining with domestic and foreign typical cities, this paper studies the saturation stage characteristics of social and economic development and power demand saturation judgment, on this basis, studying the city saturated load factors; Considering all kinds of social macro and micro factors include economic level, population scale, industrial structure, the development of science, technology level and climate factors, this paper analyzes the influence of influence factors on the saturated total load, time and space.With saturated load research on relations between factors and saturated load, this paper studies the saturated load forecasting methods deeply and constructs a typical urban core saturation load forecasting model, and through compareing the results of the different scheme, at the same time complementary with necessary correction method, implements the comprehensive prediction of typical city saturated load.Researching on the internal relation and the development trend between saturated load and influencing factors, this airctle forecasts typical city saturated load and the final size of the city grid under the condition of saturated load, which guiding the long-range planing and short-time planing in order to improve the structure of power grid and grid security of rationality, economic capacity, bringing far impact on urban power grid development, for balanced and sustainable development of social economy and power industry exciting realistic meaning and historic significance.