| With the rapid development of economy,city consumption is also growing fast,conventional prediction methods of load,has been difficult to adapt to the needs of economic and social development,to achieve convergence of proper planning and city planning and.The most close to the users of the whole power grid is the distribution network,which plays an important role in the reliability and security of electricity.Scientific planning is a good part of the stability of the power grid and economic requirements are of great practical significance.This research is based on the development of the city electricity demand and the layout of the city's detailed planning,put forward the saturated load growth curve and the econometric model based prediction method,at the same time,given the power system combined saturation load forecast method,make the load according to the city distribution network planning far.City saturated load density is the key index of the final scale of power grid development.It basically determine the final scale of the development of city power grid,distribution substation can advance planning of the corridor,and can be the vision of grid planning as the goal of the recent power grid planning and construction guidance,can greatly reduce unnecessary reconstruction and expansion project,will therefore produce economic losses to a minimum,the coordination between the the economic development and the pace of power grid construction planning.This paper takes Ganzhou city as the example,combined with grey correlation analysis method in grey theory of social economic system in various factors affecting power consumption are analyzed,the basic indicators by the Ganzhou District of GDP and population micro econometric model.Then,three methods are used to predict the saturation load of Ganzhou electric power system in the future.The example proves that the method of forecasting accuracy is based on the combination of growth curve and econometric model. |
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