A Security Risk Assessment About A Subway Construction Project

Shield method is one of the fully mechanized construction method in Underground construction methods.At present,the shield method is adopted by the subway project construction in most cases in China.This thesis try to find the problems existing in the risk research through understanding of engineering project risk management status.This thesis try to study the risk of subway shield construction based on the risk management theory and put forward the research content.This main research content is as follow:(1)Identify the risk factors of shield construction by historical accident statistics.Classified various risk factors according to the source of risk,and form a risk evaluation index system.(2)Introduce the concept of fuzzy mathematics Combined it with analytic hierarchy process and build a method suitable for shield construction in risking estimation and evaluation:Risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.?Using questionnaire,make experts evaluate the probability of emergence and the loss about the secondary risk factors Using 1?9 scale method according to their own experience.?Using 1?9 scale method and linear algebra operation method to determine the relative weight of various indicators.?contract the risk probability fuzzy set with the fuzzy set of risk loss,Calculate the average secondary risk factors,probability and average loss in the secondary risk factors.?Using the weighted average method to deal with the secondary indexes,eventually determine the influence degree of primary risk factors in the subway shield construction,and evaluate the overall level of risk about the shield construction.(3)Take metro line 3 as an example in a city,assess the risk of the metro line 3 in the shield construction in the city,verify the applicability of the risky and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.(4)According to the results of quantitative risk analysis evaluation,we can draw the following conclusions on the shield construction project:?Sorted according to the size of the amount of risk factors.?With reference to "The subway and underground project construction risk management guidelines",according to the project's overall risk,determine the project's overall risk level.?put forward several corresponding risk management measures about the project and major risk factors According to the results of the assessment.