Safety Assessment Of The Airborne Communication System Based On Bayesian Network Approach

High level safety is required for civil plane from design phase to operation phase, during which system safety assessment is an important approach for the safety compliance, with the theory application for our own aircraft, experience is gained. With the new technology used for aircraft design, product's system complexity and integrity is improved, modeling and analyzing difficulty appear during the traditional safety assessment, studying for new assessment approach has a great meaning for aircraft safety assessment.This thesis introduces the Bayesian Networks approach to the process for safety assessment, gives an application for airborne communication system. Based on the communication system architecture,function hazard is analyzed,a Bayesian network model is built according to the failure state. System architecture characters are studied from qualitative and quantitative aspects, junction tree algorithm is used for probability reasoning combined with failure rate data. Back diagnosis ability is used, with simulated annual algorithm for MPE, to find the most probable states for events, the key factors for system safety is found based on the synthesized results.To solve the timing sequence problem of failure, dynamic Bayesian network approach is used for modeling, which can increase the system description ability and reduce the complexity of Markov analysis. The modeling approach effectiveness is proved, the assessment results can be used as references for architecture design and fault diagnosis...