The Numerical Estimate Of Fuel Consumption Based On The QAR Data

At present, with the application and development of QAR data in fuel consumption analysis, using QAR to analysis and estimate fuel consumption has become a research direction of many scholars. In order to estimate the fuel consumption amount plane need during fly,fuel consumption estimation methods based on statistics are mentioned in this article in both large and small sample quantity?The main research of this paper listed as follows:Firstly, sample data is the precondition of scholastic research. Based on QAR data obtaining fuel consumption related parameters; then briefly analysis the fuel consumption data and make a choice of samples; Again, use the Anderson- Darling testing method to verify the sample distribution characteristics; Finally, complete the handling of abnormal data by using the method of MNR. Completing the above steps will prepare data foundation for future research.Secondly, derivation calculation the minimum sample size which can satisfy the needed estimation accuracy. Select the average numerical to estimate fuel consumption by comparing the commonly used eigenvalues. In order to increase the estimates reliability, choose interval estimation of the mean according to the sample distribution characteristic discussed in the first part. Estimation precision and confidence level will be two problems of the confidence interval estimation. In order to guarantee the estimation accuracy and confidence level the minimum sample size need to be calculated. Use the chi-squared method to verification on minimum sample size according to calculating character.Thirdly, the Bootstrap statistical method is introduced for small sample sizes due to the traditional method needs a lot of sample data as back up. The original and Bootstrap sample size impact on the estimation accuracy are discussed and the best of the Bootstrap sample size selection table is given by using the method of experiment. Finally, select the suitable method after discussing the precision of four interval estimation methods.Fourthly, based on the theory of previous chapters, setting up a fuel consume prediction tool for the purpose of easily predict fuel consumption. Then using the fuel consumption forecasting tool set up a model of fuel consumption on relationship with flight distance.Through the contrasts the prediction method in this paper is proven to be feasible.