Research Of Aircraft Trajectory Forecasting And Conflict Resolution In Low-altitude Rescue

In emergency rescue activities, aviation rescue was widely used around the world, as helicopters’ rapid, efficient and less restricted by geographical factors. In natural disaster rescue such as Wenchuan and Yushu earthquake in China, air relief played a remarkable role. In addition, as the low-altitude airspace management using the provisions on the release, low altitude open policy heats up, also let the low-altitude aircraft safety become a research hotspot. In this paper, in view of the major disasters of general aircraft in flight safety problems existing in the low altitude, from the early stage of the flight plan modification and real-time track forecast in flight, the flight conflicts detection, and on this basis to achieve low independent safety rescue more aircraft in the airspace.First, in view of the low altitude wind influence on planning track, this paper proposes a low-level wind forecast model, through the application of UKF based numerical weather forecast with technology, recording data of wind speed, wind direction observation point and forecasting value, forecasting data of system error correction, acquiring modified predictive value, rate of climb, cruise speed of the aircraft and the performance parameters, such as the route of the wind vector combination of correction after some time of each route. Second, in view of the flying track prediction problem, was proposed based on aircraft state intention inference flying model estimation and track prediction algorithm.The algorithm combines the interactive multiple model algorithm and improved the intention of the reasoning algorithm, the advantages of two algorithms is effectively reduced the prediction error when used alone, and thus improve the prediction precision of the flying track.Finally, on the basis of the forecast track, and put forward the model of conflict detection based on interval and reserve, based on the warning time determination methods of two or more machine conflict, conflict is detected, each aircraft as an intelligent Agent, according to the rescue situation to establish the priority rules, each Agent is determined through consultation of the order, and according to the conflict situation choose free mobile way, generate the corresponding relief path, realize collaborative conflict, so as to achieve the flight safety.