The Value Of Time Calibration And Its Application In Traffic Distribution Prediction

The Value of Time as a replacement rate of time, building a bridge between cost and time.Value of Time is key variables of the Macro urban traffic model. The Value of Time in traffic distribution forecasting, mode split forecasting and traffic assignment prediction are very important to use. In addition, study on the population’s the Value of Time for bus pricing, resident travel behavior characteristics of congestion pricing and other aspects of policy-making has great positive significance and reference value. Meanwhile, the research for Dongguan City the Value of Time will also be beneficial to analyze the relationship between residents the Value of Time and the level of urban development and the scale of urban development.Paper rely on "City comprehensive traffic survey and traffic model System" project and residents trip surve in Dongguan City in 2015,focusing on residents the Value of Time calibration, and the Value of Time application in traffic distribution prediction. In this paper, the common methods of calculating the Value of Time are compared, and select the disaggregate model as the calculation method of the Value of Time. To obtain resident travel mode selection data, the paper introduces the residents of Dongguan travel design elements SP survey programs and implementation steps. At the same time, based on Biogeme software freely available, easy to operate features, the paper eventually selected Biogeme software as the Value of Time calibration tool. Travelers are classification according to gender, income, whether the travelers have a car and travel purposes, the Value of Time of different classification groups were calibrated and analyzed.Meanwhile, the paper also calibrated average Dongguan City residents the Value of Time, the result was 22.1 yuan / hour, which is close to using the income approach calculated the Value of Time of 21 yuan / hour. By comparing the relationship between the major cities in the calibration the Value of Tim and by the income approach calculated the Value of Time between the calibration results further demonstrate the reasonableness of this article.Finally, from the concept and method of traffic distribution forecast to start, ultimately selected by the two constraints gravity model improvement from the combined impedance of the gravity model as a prediction method of traffic distribution. Transportation cell division of Dongguan macroscopic traffic model is very meticulous, 1080 was divided into traffic small zones, 42 traffic middle zones and 14 traffic large zones. Therefore, by Trans CAD software and GISDK detailed the Value of Time used in the traffic distribution forecast stage of Dongguan City macroscopic traffic model.