Study On Traffic Prediction Of High-way

With national economic developing rapidly after china's reforming and opening, the highway transportation in china has developed considerably. In light of the strategy 'stimulating domestic demand' and 'developing western region' in our country, highway construction is advanced and the grade and network of highway has been improved. Now the mileage of expressway increases constantly, the function of highway network is becoming stronger and the economic benefits of highway construction is more obvious. The high-grade highway construction is influenced by the plan of the national and regional highway network and every highway's function. And the traffic prediction is very important. So studying the traffic prediction is meaningful for the analysis and appraisal of constructing scale, constructing standard, investment estimation and the influence to environment etc. This paper mainly analyze the project of 'Yichang-Lichuan' expressway and the research results is very important for making decisions in this project.In this paper the theory and method of traffic prediction are studied. It includes the predictions of generating traffic, stimulating traffic, transferring traffic, trip distribution and traffic assignment. It holds that the prospective traffic is made up of the traffic increasing naturally, the future stimulating traffic and the transferring traffic. The economy development is predicted and the 'traffic-economy' developing model is established on the base of the statistics of the traffic and economy in the regions influenced by the project. Then according to the trend of economy developing and the results and character of these predictions, the original traffic and destination traffic at every point are predicted. Secondly, the traffic distribution in space is predicted on the base of the traffic distribution of the original year and the characteristic years in the future. Thirdly, every transportation modes in the regions influenced by the project are analyzed and predicted. In this way we can know the highway transportation's share of the transportation market. Last, according to the prospective traffic distribution and the situation of the highway network, the traffic is distributed to the project and every highway related. In the procedure of prediction, the factors of economy, transportation developing and the policy are studied comprehensively.In this paper the prediction of the generating traffic, stimulating traffic, transferring traffic, trip distribution and traffic assignment are very important for 'Yichang-Wanxian' expressway construction. All the predicting results can be applied to analyze the constructing scale, standard, investment estimation, finance, society profits and the influence to the environment and then make decisions accordingly.