Prediction Of Urban Water Supply Quantity And Wastewater Discharge Based On Metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov Chain Model

The prediction work of urban water supply quantity and wastewater discharge is important,for they are the basic datum for the design of urban water supply and drainage system.Based on the research progress of urban water supply quantity and wastewater discharge,this paper analyzed the disadvantages of conventional model and established a metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model,which then applied to the prediction work of urban water supply quantity and wastewater discharge.After analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of traditional Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model based on the Grey theory,Fuzzy mathematics,and Markov chain theory,this paper established a metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model.The metabolic theory was introduced into this new model,which could revise the original date sequence in time,and in turn it could reflect the impact of disturbing factors of the system effectively with the change of time.The precision of new model was better than the Grey model and traditional Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model.The metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model not only retained the character of less datum,simple calculation,but also was suitable for big datum fluctuating.We used the metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model to predict urban water supply quantity of Jinan.The value of urban water supply quantity of Jinan form 2001 to 2011 was used as original datum,datum from 2012 to 2013 was predicted to check the precision of this new model and the datum from 2014 to 2018 was forecasted by using metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model.The results showed that: compared with Grey model and traditional Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model,the metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model had the highest simulation accuracy and was the most reliable.The value of water supply quantity would increase to 32262.62×104m3 in 2018.The metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model was used to predict urban wastewater discharge of Jinan.The value of urban wastewater discharge of Jinan form 2001 to 2011 was used as original date.The datum from 2012 to 2013 was predicted to check the precision of this new model as well.Finally,the value of urban wastewater discharge from 2014 to 2018 was forecasted by using metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model.The results showed that both the Grey model and the metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model held good simulation accuracy,and the reliability of the metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model of predicted results was better.Both the possible relative error range and relevant probability were obtained by the metabolic Grey Fuzzy Markov chain model,and the reasonableness and accuracy of predicted results were improved greatly.The value of wastewater discharge would increase to 40555.51×10~4t in 2018.