Research On Pilot Demand Quantity Prediction And Team Construction Based On Grey Markov Method

Pilotage plays an indispensable role in the operation of the port,and it is the starting point and the end of the port operation.With the rapid development of China's economy,foreign trade volume surged,the major domestic port throughput has increased year by year,and because the ship is becoming larger,safety standards continue to improve,resulting in the difficulty of ship operation increase,and the increase of the risk coefficient brings more challenges to the port pilotage.The pilot is the core of the pilot station,building a stable,young,highly qualified pilot team,and reasonable planning the pilot demand cannot only meet the needs of the business demand of pilot station,and can also save the maximum degree of human resources.In order to promote the sustained and stable development of the pilot station,to ensure the normal efficient operation of port,prediction of demanding pilot quantity and team construction of pilot needs is of great significance for the sake of the development of the pilot station.This paper aims at the analysis of pilot demand and equipment and provides scientific basis for its calculation,at the same time through the analysis of pilot team building of Shenzhen pilot station,to provide reference for the construction of the pilot team of other domestic pilot station.This paper firstly introduces the related knowledge of the grey prediction model,Markov prediction model and grey Markov prediction model,and then analyzes the specific situation of the construction of China's pilot station team,finally,taking Shenzhen pilot station as an example,carrying out a detailed description of the pilot study on pilot demand forecasting and team construction of pilot station process.Based on the calculation and analysis of the pilot number prediction and team construction of Shenzhen port pilot station,Firstly,according to the pilot data of the pilot station in Shenzhen,using grey Markov forecasting model to calculate the prediction pilotage data in 2020 and in the year of 2030;then,according to the forecast value and the port of Shenzhen pilot station scheduling system,calculate the number of pilot demand in 2020 and 2030;finally,analysis the relative factors of the pilot in Shenzhen pilot station,including the age structure,title structure,educational structure,combined with the predicted results of pilot demand,the configuration requirements of Shenzhen pilot station in the next 15 years are analyzed.Finally,the specific configuration scheme about pilot is given.At the same time,this paper puts forward some problems in the construction of Shenzhen pilot station,and gives some concrete suggestions.