Medium-Long Term Load Forecasting Based On Combination Forecast Method

Load forecasting accuracy of the power system planning and investment has a direct effect of the role,at the same time it also related to the power grid of safety and reliable operation.And the medium-long term load forecasting is an important part of the load forecast,The research status of medium and long term load forecasting directly affect the development of the load forecast.Therefore,medium-long term load forecasting of the power system is a vision.The medium-long term load forecasting is refers to the next three years or longer load forecast.At present,there are a lot of single model is applied to the load forecast of medium-long term.But they can't fully reflect the change rule of load and information,Combination model become a new research object.This paper first based on recent decades scholars research results and the direction of development,Summarizes the medium and long term load forecasting and combination forecast method research situation.This paper introduce the basic theory of combination forecast.Focus on the calculation of weight on the type,On the basis of this paper by using time regression model and improve the GM model,Establish three kinds of combination forecast model,Through analysis and comparison of the numerical example,Conclusion combination model is better than a single model.Finally elected a good model,Forecast one region over the next few year power consumption.