Research On The Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Of Power System In Lishui Area

With the rapid development of China's electric power system,load forecasting plays an increasingly important role.Improving the forecasting technology level is conducive to the management of electricity,reduce the cost of power generation,make reasonable grid plans and improve social and economic benefits of the power system.Accurate load forecasting ensures the orderly production of local society,the normal life of residents,and provide an important guarantee for local economic development.Because of the different development levels among regions,there exsits a most suitable prediction method for every region.This paper is committed to find the most suitable prediction method for the load forecastiong of Lishui grid.Through consulting literatures,this paper researchs the existing power load forecasting technology,summarizes the characteristics and classification of power load forecasting,and analyzes the factors that affect the accuracy of long-term electric load forecasting.In this paper,the concept of virtual prediction and the validity of model prediction are introduced in detail.The article analyzes the current economic and social state of Lishui region,the development of each industry,electricity consumption condition and local residents electricity comsuption characteristics.Combined with the local industrial layout in the next few years,this paper makes a description of the general situation of Lishui.Through the analysis of the development of Lishui economy and power system,the article preliminary selects elastic coefficient method,Unit consumption method,Per capita electricity method,regression analysis method and grey prediction method to forecast recent five years electricity consumption of Lishui region in virtual prediction method.Similarly,the article selects maximum load utilization hours method,regression analysis method and grey prediction method to forecast recent five years maximum power load in Lishui.According to the degree of validity of the models,the optimal combination selection method is proposed to obtain the most suitable combination forecasting method in Lishui area.Finally,according to the obtained optimal combination forecasting method,the article forecasts the electricity consumption and the maximum power load in Lishui area during the period of "13th Five-Year".