Distribution Network Electricity Load Forecasting In Erlian Area

The construction of urban distribution network system and sustainable development is of great significance to the development of the national economy.Through urban distribution network planning,the structure of distribution network is more reasonable,operation more flexible.To realize safe and reliable,energy saving efficiency is the main purpose of the study of the distribution network system Finally to realize the continuous improvement of urban distribution network power supply capacity and power quality,so as to meet the needs of urban economic growth and social development.As the deep development of computer processing methods applications in the power research system,power system gradually entered a new digital stage of development.Through to the huge amounts of data processing and using the model analysis method to meet the electricity demand of users,which let the various forms of power generation and access more stable and reliable and according to market demand to optimize power market economy.With the constant improvement of the various technical indicators in network management system.Grid forecast and the establishment of evaluation system makes the management of the power system more scientific,systematic,standardization and standardization.Load forecasting show a broad application prospect in power system operation and the future of distribution network planning.This topic with the distribution network power demand forecasting in erlian area as the starting point and deeply discussing the distribution network development status in erlian region and load characteristic.Adopting two kinds of more complete analysis of power load forecasting method:In the total load forecasting,with the method of multi-models prediction and calculation,making a prediction analysis to the current distribution network and the load characteristic for erlian area over the next five years.In the spatial load forecasting method,according to the characteristic of space,region and development in the erlian area,combining with the rich and comprehensive historical data,it embody the important role of load density index in area load forecasting.The predicted results are verified.In the end,according to the results of electric power demand forecasting,combining with the feature of erlian area power grid and its future development trend,the erlian area power system short-term and long-term development planning and the erlian area load management and planning goal and planning direction can be put forward.