The Analysis And Forecasting Of Electricity Demand In Shenzhen

In 2015,"Thirteen Five" science and technology development plan was issued by the China Southern Power Grid,followed by the "13 Five Year Plan" in sept.2013.The Guangdong Power Grid is an important part of China Southern Power Grid.The plan put forward higher requirements for power load forecasting and power planning in Guangdong.Electric power planning,including power source planning and power grid planning,is the important work related to the national economy and people's livelihood and economic and social development.Accurate power load forecasting can decide the future of new generator set installation,decided the size of the installed capacity,location,time,and the expansion and renovation of power grid.In this paper,combined with characteristics of long-term power and electricity demand and socio-economic development in Shenzhen,electricity demand in Shenzhen and its influencing factor were analyzed.Firstly,electricity demand in Shenzhen was introduced in terms of electricity consumption,electricity supply,and power structure.Then,based on GDP,population,economic,social and cultural in Shenzhen,its economic and social development was briefly showed and their relationship of dialectical unity were analyzed.Next,the electricity demand influencing factors were summarized,including the level of economic development,industrial structure changes,power and alternative energy prices,demographic factors,weather factors and scientific and technological progress and energy-saving effects.Based on the total electricity consumption data during 2001-2015 in Shenzhen,this paper conducted Grey Model,Multiple Linear Regression and Exponential Smoothing Models and their Combination Forecasting Model to predict the annual electricity consumption from 2010-2015 in Shenzhen.Results showed that the predicted value of combination forecasting model is more in.line with the actual value,so take the combination forecasting model to forecast the five years' electricity consumption in Shenzhen.The electricity consumption will increase in the next six years,which can provide references for Shenzhen electric power planning.