Probabilistic Short Circuit Analysis Of Wind Power System And Reliability Evaluation To Measurement & Control System In Smart Substation

With the increase of wind power integration,it is hard to solve difficulties such as multiple contingencies,uncertainties of wind power,improvement of calculation efficiency and analytical sensitivity model in probabilistic short circuit analysis(PSCA)of wind power system.Measurement & control system(MCS)of smart substation can be used as fundamental research of node probabilistic short circuit.Which are shown as follows:By introducing the power flow model of doubly-fed induction generators(DFIGs),the hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC)simulation considering dual faults,branches enumerated and parameters sampled is proposed.The variance for the HMC is proposed.The numerical analysis shows the impacts of high-order fault and wind power on the PSCA results,and compares convergence of sequence voltages and currents.The optimal HMC(OPHMC)with the fault branch enumerated and probabilistically weighted is proposed,which the fault type is obtained by the pre-sampling optimal probability density function.The expectations,convergence,calculation time and calculation efficiency of MC,HMC and OPHMC are compared.Feasibility and value of the proposed model are validated.Based on the algorithms by combining analytical enumeration and probabilistic weighted,analytical sensitivity model of PSCA results is newly proposed according to derivative of equipments failure probability with reliability parameters and wind speed probability distribution function with wind power distributed parameters,obtaining the key components and parameters.Validity of analytical sensitivity model is verified by changing initial parameters continuously.The reliability model for the MCS across linking two process level networks is newly proposed,and solved by the hybrid method of MC and fault tree analysis(FTA).The operating status model of the MCS is introduced.Numerical analysis compares the reliability indices of the MCS and protection system,and obtains probability of different operating states of MCS.