Risk Analysis Of Dam Break Of Plain Reservoir Based On Fuzzy Theory

Plain reservoir is an important part of South-to-North water diversion and also an important link of dispatching operation.With the continuous development of the South-toNorth water diversion project,Datong,Donghu,Shuangwangcheng and other large-scale plain reservoirs have begun to run,and the reservoir capacity and dam height have been expanding,and the construction scale is far beyond the plain reservoirs.Plain reservoirs are located near densely populated large and medium cities,and once operational problems arise,they will have a huge impact on people's lives and property.Reservoir risk is the product of dam risk and consequences,including seriousness oflife,health,property and environmental impact.China's reservoir dam safety management is in the process of transition from traditional engineering safety management to risk management.Reservoir risk management takes risk control as the core to reduce reservoir risk as the goal,not only being concerned with reservoir safety,but also beingconcerned about reservoir collapse Dam,which is the result of a more scientific and reasonable modern reservoir safety management model,becoming the development trend of reservoir safety management,but also the inevitable requirement of economic and social development.Based on the research and demonstration of health diagnosis and protection technology in the operation period of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(2015BAB07B05),this paper conducts the risk analysis on the plain reservoir.The collapsing probability of plain reservoir is analyzed by the combination of fuzzy theory and event tree method.The result of dam analysis of plain reservoir is analyzed by analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The risk index R0 is a quantitative evaluation index.The content mainly includes the analysis of the collapse probability of the plain reservoir based on the fuzzy theory and the event tree method,and the two aspects of the dam collapse result analysis of the plain reservoir based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The main research contents include the following aspects:(1)Access to analysis of domestic and foreign literature,analysis of plain dam damage causes.Combined with the characteristics of the plain reservoir and the characteristics of the operation period,the initial events were screened,and the dam damage pattern and damage mechanism or mechanism of the plain reservoir were analyzed.(2)Based on the combination of fuzzy theory and event tree,the probability of occurrence of each link in the dam collapse event is analyzed,and the probability of dam collapse is analyzed.(3)Based on the calculation of loss of life,economic loss,social and environmentalloss after dam break,the index system of dam damage loss is established by AHP,including 14 indicators of target layer,criterion layer and index layer,Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the consequences of dam collapse are analyzed.(4)The risk index is applied to the Dutun Reservoir,and the risk analysis of Datun Reservoir is carried out to evaluate the risk degree of Datun Reservoir.Datun Reservoir risk index is less than 0.1,which is in a state of risk can be ignored,without the need for reinforcement of the reservoir reinforcement measures.According to the basic concept of risk,combined with the characteristics of China'splain reservoir and draw lessons from the concept of foreign advanced reservoir management,the risk analysis of plain reservoir is designed to ensure the safe and effective operation of plain reservoir,and to provide decision-making basis for scientific management during the operation of plain reservoir To serve the healthy development of regional economic and social environment,so that China's reservoir management level and international standards.