Study On Control Of Flood Control Level Of Reservoir Based On Risk Theory

As a new concept of water control,flood diversion has become an effective measure to solve the shortage of water resources in the region.The reservoir is flood resources for flood control and limited water level and Hennessy simultaneously,is a combination of flood control and irrigation,water level is too high or too low will directly affect the reservoir flood control risk and benefit,and with the progress of science and technology and human society,people have more and more requirements for safe and reliable high,therefore,it is important to study the limited water level based on risk theory.Based on the risk theory as the main line,to the limited water level for the purpose of a detailed study of the risk factors of flood control in the reservoir operation and water supply risk,the risk of the development of the theoretical system of reservoir scheduling,construct risk dispatching model more common,and used to study the control scheme of Shaanxi province Shitouhe reservoir limited water level.Specific findings are as follows:(1)Risk analysis procedures for the establishment of flood control reservoir.Based on the classical risk analysis theory,the definition,characteristics and procedure of risk analysis in reservoir operation are systematically summarized.The reservoir operation risk from the risk of occurrence form,main factors and consequences of the three aspects detailed recognition;making a deep analysis on the methods of reservoir operation risk estimates from the risk probability of occurrence and consequences of the size of the angle;through the induction of reservoir operation risk assessment method,discusses the scheme of reservoir operation in decision making.Finally,demonstrates the dialectical relationship between the reservoir limited water level and reservoir scheduling: the limited water level to reservoir scheduling to achieve,and the reservoir water level for limited water level.On the basis of a set of relatively.(2)Construction of general risk model for reservoir flood control.Effect of selection of main risk factors of reservoir flood risk,flood storage and discharge capacity,water level and wave,with the fundamental theorem of probability based risk model of flood control,distribution function and obedience from the number and model of the angle factor factor model summarizes the applicability of the method of solving the model.Finally to Shitouhe Reservoir as an example,select the check water level as a risk index,flood as the main risk factors for different water level in flood period is calculated by frequency analysis(798.00 m,798.50 m,799.00 m,799.50 m,801.00m)under the risk rate,and will allow 10-6 as the standard risk risk rate,when the limited water level in flood season 799.00 m,the risk rate is 9×10-6,still within the allowable range.Therefore,it can be concluded that the water level of stone river reservoir is 799.00 m,which is the highest water level for normal water storage during flood season.(3)The construction of reservoir water supply risk model.The impact of selected major risk factors: the risk of reservoir water runoff,storage capacity,scheduling rules,river ecological water demand,evaporation and leakage,similar to the fundamental theorem of probability for the establishment of reservoir water supply risk model foundation;and selecting reliability,vulnerability and the cycle as risk evaluation index,through the analysis of the risk factors Shitouhe Reservoir water supply,runoff is selected as a risk factor,"1-design assurance rate" for the allowed risk standard,with a long series of Hennessy scheduling calculation and get the conclusion: Shitouhe Reservoir water level to the lowest 798.00 m Hennessy water level during flood season.(4)Flood risk theory research based on time control and application.Introduces the application of the traditional control of limited water level defects,expounds the applicability of stage control method based on risk theory.Considering the risk of flood control and water supply of Shitouhe Reservoir,based on flood season staging Shitouhe Reservoir,finally get the limited water level of stone control scheme,namely in the main flood season(July 11 th ~8 10)flood level 798.00m~799.00 m,flood season(05 Nov 21-07 Sept.10)flood control level from 801.00 m to 799.00 m gradually decreased,the late period of flood season(08 months 11 ~09 on day 20)gradually increased from 799.00 m to 801.00 m,other times with 801.00 m as control,finally puts forward the risk control measures to reduce the flood control level.