Research On Decision Making Of The Optimal Operation Speed Target Value Of High Speed Railway Based On Logit Model And Bi-level Programming Theory

The speed target value is one of the main technical standards of high speed railway,it is the basis of the research and implementation of the civil engineering design standards,the manufacturing of the rolling stock,the traffic control technology,the traffic volume and the economic analysis.In order to make a scientific and reasonable decision of the advanced technical and reasonable economic speed target value so that it can fully paly the comprehensive technical and economic advantages of high speed railway.It is necessary to research the decision making of the speed target value.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)A comprehensive technical and economic research on the speed target value is carried out.The principle of selecting the speed target value is pointed out,and the technical and economic indexes closely related to the speed target value are researched.These indexes include civil engineering investment,locomotive and vehicle investment,transportation cost,passenger transport volume,transportation organization mode,travel time saving value,fare rate and passenger payment capacity and environmental protection requirements.Thus,the technical and economic analysis of the speed target value is improved.(2)The vehicle selection behavior of passenger and passenger volume is researched deeply,and it is pointed out that the rapidity,economy,safety,comfort,punctuality and convenience are the key factors that influence the choice behavior of passengers.Based on the six key factors the utility function of the vehicle is established.Thus,the Logit model of multi objective decision making is established.A case study of Chongqing to Xi'an high-speed railway in Southwest China,the utility coefficient is calibrated in the utility function,the Logit model of passenger traffic volume on the operation speed target value and fare rate is established for the passenger's choice of the high-speed railway.And the market share and passenger volume of Chongqing to Xi'an high-speed railway are predicted.Therefore,it can be more comprehensive to analyze the impact of the operation speed target value and fare rate on the market share and passenger volume.(3)In the research of the optimal operating speed target value,the theory and solvingmethod of Bi-level programming model are analyzed,and by considering the vehicle selection behavior of passenger the Bi-level programming model is established for the maximum operational benefit of railway enterprise and the minimum travel cost of the passenger.In order to make a scientific and reasonable decision on the operation speed target value of Chongqing to Xi'an high-speed railway and provide some reference value for the actual decision-making.Based on the Logit model and Bi-level programming model,the optimal operating speed target value and fare rate of Chongqing to Xi'an high-speed railway are researched.When using the Logit model to research the operation speed target value,it also analyzes the operation speed target value and the fare rate under the condition that railway operation benefit and passenger's generalized travel cost is under different weights.And the results of the two models were compared and analyzed in detail,the results show that the calculation results using the two models are close,the calculation results of operation speed target value and the fare rate is also consistent with the actual situation and the operation speed target value is converted into the design speed target value,so the research conclusions of the Logit model and Bi-level programming model for the decision making of the speed target value and the fare rate in the early planning stage are put forward.