The Application Of GM(1,1)and BP Neural Network In Dam Scheduling And Management Evaluation

The dam scheduling and management is reflected in the ability of the dam to deal with the sudden situation,and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evaluation of the dam scheduling and management.It is directly related to whether it can reflect the dam scheduling and management situation factually and comprehensively,whether the evaluation index system of dam scheduling and management is correct and complete,and whether the evaluation method is appropriate.The scientific and reasonable evaluation index system and the correct evaluation method play an important role on the dam management and the dam emergency scheduling and so on.The paper first investigates the research background,significance and status of the dam scheduling and management evaluation both at home and abroad.It is found that the existing dam evaluation system is only taken into account the evaluation of the water quality and water quantity.It is only the influence of the dam itself.The dam management and the water ecology are not considered.Therefore,the existing dam evaluation system is inadequate.This paper rethinks and locates the existing dam scheduling and management evaluation system,reforms the original evaluation mode which does not take into account the influence of water ecological impact and management,and establishes a new and scientific dam scheduling and management evaluation system.We solve the weight of the evaluation index through Analytic Hierarchy Process method,which lays the foundation for the subsequent evaluation method based on the gray GM(1,1)model and the optimized BP artificial neural network.After the establishment of the dam evaluation system,the dam scheduling and management evaluation model is established based on the Genetic Algorithm and optimized BP artificial neural network(GA-BP).The series and parallel combined model of the dam scheduling and management evaluation is constructed based on the gray GM(1,1)model and the optimized BP artificial neural network(GM-BP).Then,the models are analyzed by examples.Through the analysis of examples,in the scientific,dynamic,hierarchical and practical principles,this paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the model to test the scientific degree and operability.At the same time,the evaluation methods proposed in this paper are compared with other evaluation methods,gray correlation analysis method,technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method(TOPSIS)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCE),and a total of 7 methods are compared to verify the correctness of the evaluation method.The results show that the method based on the gray GM(1,1)model and the optimized BP artificial neural network has the effectiveness,feasibility and reference in dealing with the dam scheduling and management evaluation problem.The problem is multilevel and complex,and has incomplete information.This provides a useful exploration and practice for the dam scheduling and management evaluation.The evaluation method proposed in this paper will not only play an important role in the dam scheduling and management evaluation of the Huaihe River Basin,but will also be applied to other similar rivers in the country.Therefore,the results obtained in this paper have very good promotion and application prospects in the Huaihe River Basin and other similar regions throughout the country.