Study On Wind Power Prediction Based On Markov Chain Wind Speed Correction

With the rapid development of the global economy,the demand for energy to support economic development is growing.Due to the limited availability of traditional fossil fuels,the contradiction between the imbalances in energy supply and demand limits the development of the economies of the world,making the energy shortage become a problem for the entire human society.The environmental pollution problems caused by using fossil fuels has become more and more serious,and now become a common challenge for human society.Wind energy is a form of transformation of solar energy,it is a renewable clean energy,wind power is the main form of wind energy utilization.Wind power is affected by wind speed and air density,the fluctuation and intermittence of wind speed make the output power of wind farm also fluctuate and intermittently,large-scale wind power grid will have a serious impact on the daily stable operation of the grid and the safety and power quality of the grid system.If the wind power can be accurately predicted,it can effectively improve the reliability of power system operation,reduce the adverse effects of wind power grid on the power system,and can make greater use of wind resources.In this paper,the wind speed error correction method based on Markov chain is proposed,indirect prediction of wind power.Based on the wind speed error sequence of NWP wind speed forecast and SCADA wind speed value,the Markov chain wind speed error correction.The wind speed error sequence is divided by fuzzy C-mean state,the initial probability distribution of each state in the initial state is counted,establish a transition probability matrix between states,the wind speed error correction value of the next time is predicted based on the transition probability matrix,predict wind speed error correction value,and finally get the corrected wind speed value.And then the wind power before wind speed correction and wind speed correction is predicted according to the wind speed power curve.In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed Markov chain wind speed error correction method,Markov chain wind speed error correction for different number of wind speed sample points,and the error of the modified results is analyzed.The results show that the Markov chain wind speed error correction model can improve the wind speed prediction accuracy.Wind power prediction based on Markov chain wind speed correction,the results of power prediction are analyzed and evaluated by using the absolute error,the root mean square error,the average absolute error and the average absolute percentage error,the error of wind power prediction based on Markov chain wind speed correction is decreased compared with the power prediction error before wind speed correction,the results show that the wind power prediction accuracy based on Markov chain wind speed correction is higher than that of unmodified wind speed.Therefore,the correction of the wind speed error of Markov chain proposed in this paper can improve the prediction accuracy of wind power.