Study On Trajectory Prediction Technology During Power System Transient Process Under CPS Environment

With the development of smart grid construction,integration between power system and communication system is closer and closer.The traditional power system is becoming power cyber physical system(CPS).Power CPS can support power system real-time wide-area analysis and control with advanced measurement and communication technology.Meanwhile,it brings to power system on-line application with risks caused by communication faults.In traditional power system on-line analysis and control applications,this kind of communication risks haven’t been considered which makes implement effect of power system on-line analysis and control unreliable.Thus,it is necessary to consider potential communication risks in power system on-line applications.In this paper,angle trajectory prediction method under power system transient process is studied and achievements are listed as follows:Firstly,method of constructing generator angle trajectory pattern library by off-line clustering and on-line updating is introduced based on analyzing the similarity between generator angle trajectories under different operation condition.An implement prediction method relies on real-tine data measuring and constructed generator angle trajectory pattern library is proposed and this method takes communication risk into consideration which improves reliability of angle trajectory on-line prediction method.Secondly,in order to search key information that have important effect on power system transient angle stability form massive power system operation information,a fast data filtering method to find key information is introduced in this thesis.Considering ELM has high training speed and high predicting accuracy,power system transient angle stability assessment model is set up based on ELM by combining key information filtering and ELM data processing.In this way,power system transient angle stability fast prediction is realized.At last,characteristics of method based on trajectory fitting and method based on ELM are outlined and compared.On this basis,a new power system transient trajectory uniform prediction method carried out by fast stability predicting and trajectory fitting check is proposed and its simulation result shows that this method realizes balance between prediction speed and prediction accuracy.