Research On Water Resources Planning Model Under Uncertainty

Water is limited natural resources.The shortage of water resources is inevitable for the high development of social economic and the continuous population growth.Therefore,it is particularly significant to manage the limited available water resources.However,there exist numerous uncertainties and system risks resulted from vague information in water resources management system.Besides,uncertain factors and their interactions are dynamic,which may have a large influence on water resources allocation.Identifying and determining the effects of uncertain factors can help decision-makers make reasonable water resources management schemes.At the same time,it is desire to make a long period water resources management programming to reflect the dynamic uncertainties,which can prov ide manager with real-time decisions,so as to realize sustainable development between water resources,social economic and ecosystem.Therefore,the research mainly constructs(1)inexact water resources allocation programming for reflecting uncertainties and complexities in water resources management system;(2)CVa R-based factorial stochastic water resources allocation model for revealing effects of uncertain factors and controlling system risk;(3)dual stochastic multi-stage stochastic programming for providing real-time management schemes under considering system risk.Overall,the research proposes several different water resources management models which can generate diverse water management strategies for decision-makers under specific situations in different ways.The main innovations are developing several methods reflecting uncertainties in water resources management system and introducing factorial design approach into water allocation system,which enrich the inexact water resources optimization theory,and provide supports for the sustainable development of social-economic and environment.