Interval Forecasting Of Traffic Demand Under The Condition Of Expressway Toll Free

Since the National Day of 2012,the policy on free toll for small passenger cars in major holidays has been implemented.The policy save the cost of public-travel on the surface,but too many cars poured on to the motorway,serious traffic congestion is caused.As the main artery of the social and economic transportation,highway determines the planning and industrial layout of the cities and towns,and affects the production and life of the residents along the line.The stimulus of holiday economic makes the public consumption ability further release,and it will inevitably bring some pressure to highway traffic.Through the analysis of the highway traffic characteristics under the free condition,by predicting highway traffic demand,the data can provide reference for the traffic organization and management and the diversion scheme of highway related management department under the condition of free holidays.And thus it truly realize the purpose of creating favorable conditions for people's holiday travel,so that the policy serve the people better..Firstly,the thesis analyzes the characteristics of highway traffic demand forecast under the free condition.Combining the characteristics of traffic demand forecasting,the thesis puts forward the significance and feasibility of the traffic demand treated as the uncertain traffic demand,based on the introduction and comparison of current highway traffic demand forecasting methods.Through comparing the measurement methods,interval number is chosen to be the large traffic demand measurement tool and method in the thesis.The section flow is regarded as the interval number in the reasonable range,which will make the forecast result more accurate and reasonable.Then,the "four stages" forecasting method is studied based on the interval demand.The interval combination forecasting method of traffic occurrence(Generates predictions,Attraction forecast)quantity,the interval forecasting method of travel distribution and the traffic assignment method under interval demand are proposed.Then the basic information required for the prediction—current situation OD is obtained through constructing the dual programming model of the current situation of the OD interval,and applying the genetic algorithm with MATLAB software.Finally,on the basis of Tan Lei section of The Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway in Hunan province,interval prediction of traffic demand on holidays has been done in this thesis.After the analysis of the example,the corresponding results are obtained.It also shows that the interval prediction model,the double layer Estimating OD Matrices model and the algorithm are feasible.