Demand Forecasting Of Freight Traffic For Container Terminal Based On The Arrival Interval Distrbution Of Vessel

With the continued development of foreign trade, under the guidance of the export-oriented economy in the past 30 years, China's container throughput has maintained rapid growth. However, the continued growth of container throughput and the development of multimodal transport have brought great pressure to highway for port. As an important part of collecting and distributing system for container terminal, transportation efficiency of highway directly affects the development of port container logistics industry. Therefore, how to forecast freight traffic demand of container terminal reasonably, which aims to guide the planning and design of highway for port, decides whether the container terminal can operate effectively to a large extent.Currently, research on forecasting of freight traffic demand for container terminal is not that much. This paper focused on the mechanism of freight traffic and built a forecasting model based on characteristics of port production, which is freight traffic demand is induced by container vessels. The article made a preliminary research on freight traffic demand and tried to provide a new way of thinking for similar problems.This study first divided the structure of traffic demand for highway, and analyzed the generation process mechanism of freight transport traffic of container terminals. Then through building simulation model of ship navigation and operation, it further discussed the arrival interval distribution of vessel and the distribution of the import & export container volume, and according to the literature determined the distribution of trucks volume induced by container vessels. At last, the paper built hourly freight traffic volume forecasting model for the whole year based on the generation process mechanism and arrival interval distribution of vessel. Among these figures, the paper chose the 20th peak hour traffic, whose guarantee rate is 99.77%, to be the standard for measuring freight traffic demand of container terminal. Besides, the method is proved to be feasible and rational by comparing the results of forecasting freight traffic demand with statistical results of the first phase container terminals of Songyu Port. The paper also forecasted its freight traffic demand of 2015,2020 and 2030.