Research On Reliability Evaluation Of The Power Supply Based On The Key Business Indicators Of Distribution Network

The distribution system is the key link to connect the user and the power system,there is a direct impact on the user's power supply quality and power supply benefits.The indicators of power supply reliability will directly reflect the power supply capacity of the power supply system.The indicators of distribution network'business represent the business level of the major functional departments of the power supply business.Therefore,it's particularly important to assess the reliability of power supply system based on the key business indicators of distribution network.In this paper,the reliability index is selected based on the key business of distribution network.The relationship between the key business indicators of power supply enterprises and the reliability level of power supply is analyzed,and then the integrity,relevance and redundancy of the reliability of distribution network are analyzed.A reliability evaluation index system(a total of 43 items and 13 key items)based on the key business of the distribution network is established,which can reflects the main problems of the assessment object from different sides.Then an accurate and objective evaluation of the reliability of the regional distribution network is formed which improves the power supply reliability's perfect level of different functional management of the power supply enterprise.The BP neural network algorithm is used to predict the reliability index of power supply enterprises which leads to the reliability work of power supply is changed from post-statistical evaluation to advance forecast.The higher management of the power supply company's operability to carry out the assessment is improved,the usage of this result makes the development of reliability indicators more scientific and reasonable which can further enhance the management level of reliability of power supply enterprise.Finally,an actual data of a power supply bureau is used to verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm.The results show that the average absolute deviation of the number of faulty users around the year between the predicted and actual value is7.70%,which can realize the prediction of the number of failure.