Study On Collaborative Diagnosis Of Seepage And Deformation Situation For Concrete Dam With Dynamic Panel Data

Analysis of dam safety monitoring is an important method for dam safety.The analysis method of dam measured data is maturing,which provides some protection for dam safety operation,but there are still many deficiencies in data analysis,comprehensive diagnosis and trend prediction.Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing monitoring model and the diagnosis method,the construction of comprehensive evaluation system for concrete gravity dam is established with the measured data of seepage and deformation,the modeling method for different mechanical parameters is studied by means of statistical analysis,support vector machine,wavelet technology,BP neural network,ARIMA model,information entropy,cloud model,etc.,modeling methods for different effects are studied,the prediction accuracy of the measured data analysis model are improved,the development trend of the whole dam safety is predicted,providing reference for dam safety management.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Considering the complexity of the dam system,the selection principle of comprehensive diagnosis index of dam sentenced are discussed,the corresponding evaluation set is set,and comprehensive diagnosis system was established.(2)In view of the optimization parameters of bird algorithm has the defects in the late slow operation,the steepest descent method is introduced to form a combinatorial optimization method,the regression factor of uplift pressure parameters are selected,a support vector machine model is verified.An example is given to show that the proposed model is superior to the conventional model in dealing with the mutation of regression factor.(3)The method of establishing the safety monitoring model for concrete gravity dam is studied.Based on the separation and reconstruction of the original monitoring data by wavelet technology,the BP neural network combined with ARIMA deformation prediction model is established,and its prediction accuracy is analyzed.(4)Based on the results of the prediction analysis,the measured data of various parameters are pretreated.Combined with the advantages of the Dynamic entropy weight method and the cloud model method,the dynamic and comprehensive diagnosis model of concrete gravity dam is established.The development trend of the safety status for each measuring point and each project is analyzed.According to the results of comprehensive diagnosis,the principle of minimum membership degree is proposed,and the overall safety warning mechanism of concrete gravity dam is constructed.