The Research Of The Real-time Traffic Flow Prediction Models For Dynamic Route Guidance System In Intelligent Transportation Area

With the rapid development of economy and society, the expanding of the city scale, urban traffic is facing tremendous pressure. The fundamental way of reducing traffic accidents, solving traffic congestion,improving people's quality of life and promoting urban environmental protection is that through the construction of intelligent transportation system, improving the information level of traffic management and service and enhancing the ability of decision support. The development of intelligent transportation industry has been ushered in a great opportunity,and will continue to show the rapid growth trend in a long period of time.Firstly, we have proposed the two models, urban-traffic forecasting model and traffic-light dynamic controlling model which are applied into the routing guidance system in order to reduce the mean traveling time.The routing guidance system could guide the corresponding vehicles ,which is helpful for drivers to make a detour in order to alleviate road jam and avoid traffic congestion. So that the great benefit is brought to the transportation system. The dynamic controlling of the traffic lights can provide the good leading of the common road traffic guidance, the two models can provide good theoretical guidance for the problem of urban traffic congestion.And then, the proposed urban-traffic forecasting model in this paper can be divided into three phases. Firstly, Testing and forecasting congestion, and then recalculating the alternative route of the vehicles, at last choosing the road to guided the driver. The modeling method can monitor the sudden change of current traffic flow which is based on to give the proper path planning. The traffic-light dynamic controlling model could adjust the time of the traffic lights dynamically based on the time period and the traffic volume in order to lead the traffic effectively. We have proposed the forecasting model based on the traffic volume of the traffic network and building the effectively-improved routing guidance system in order to improve the operating performance. We have studied the performance of the systematic traffic network which take the impact to the routing driving and non-routing driving and described the positive guiding effect.At last ,we have modeled and simulated the two models in experiment based on the real-time traffic volume forecasting and traffic-light dynamic controlling .the experiment results of the first model indicates the forecasting model based on the Road of time and space and road volume have improved the accuracy of the forecasting traffic flow and error precision. The second model indicates that the utilization of the road have be improved and the congestion can be solved a through the dynamic controlling of the traffic lights . The use of traffic lights dynamic control model for the dynamic adjustment of the green signal for the road utilization has been greatly improved and to prevent the occurrence of traffic congestion can be very helpful.