Research Of Civil Aviation Safety Situation Model

Since 12 th Five-Year,the quality of China’s civil aviation developed steadily.The seat availability and cargo load factor is persistently high,civil aviation security capabilities continue to increase,the safety level is ahead of the world,increases prominent strategic position of civil aviation.Safety as the industry’s most core issues is concerned,not only related to the safety of the lives and property of the passengers,but also to the enterprise,the government,the country’s economic development and reputation,the impact is very important.This dissertation takes civil aviation safety situation as a complex system,and studies on it used theory and method of system dynamics which broading the scope of the application of system dynamics and providing a new way of research in civil aviation safety situation.This dissertation analyzed the safety data of international and domestic civil aviation to research on the safety trend of civil aviation.From the view of system science,it constructs the system of civil aviation safety situation through three layers of factors.Based on the PEST model,it analyzes the macro environmental factors of China’s civil aviation safety situation.The other two layers of factors are the internal and external factors of the civil aviation safety situation system.External factors mainly concerns the domestic important economic indicators and safety indicators.Internal factors are divided into industry development indicators and industry safety indicators.Combined with the characteristics of the civil aviation and its accidents,to establish civil aviation safety index as the basis of evaluation to domestic civil aviation safety situation.Aimed at promoting the safety of civil aviation,this dissertation based on stepwise simulation in-tree to establish the simulation model of the civil aviation safety situation system.In the process of simulation modeling,it based on the dynamic change and development of the system,the control and promotion of the process of the horizontal lifting to set up variation range about the control parameters of different in-tree.And it realized the combination of simulation equations in the process of establishing the simulation equation.Using key causal chain by feedback loop to analysis the main cause of the slow development of civil aviation safety.It generated into 3 categories and a total of 16 key causal chains to propose three measures to promote the safety of civil aviation.Finally,it verified the simulation model by adjusting the related parameters of the three measures.It will provide a reference for the formulation and implementation of China’s civil aviation safety management strategy,and realize the innovation and application of the model.