Study On The Residents’ Travel Choice Behavior Based On Prospect Theory Considering The Influence Of Traffic Information

In the field of traffic research,the travel mode choice is one of the important research objects.This paper mainly uses the prospect theory to study the urban residents’ travel mode choice,in order to improve and enrich the prediction methods of travel mode choice behavior decision.Firstly,this paper reviews the domestic and foreign research from three aspects: the travel mode choice,the travel behavior based on prospect theory and the travel behavior considering the traffic information.After that,the process of residents’ travel mode selection is described.On this basis,the influencing factors of travel mode choice are analyzed.At the same time,the basic connotation of the relevant theory(expected utility theory and prospect theory)of travel mode choice is introduced in detail,and the differences are compared.In addition,the applicability of prospect theory in the choice of travel mode is analyzed,and the framework of travel mode choice based on prospect theory is established.At the same time,considering the prospect theory model parameters have large differences under different conditions and region,the research designs the questionnaire based on prospect theory,and implement the survey for the Urumqi residents,then obtain a group prospect theory model parameters,can well describe the traveler’s choice behavior.Secondly,considering the impacts by traffic information on the travel mode choice,the questionnaire is designed and the Logit model is used to determine the travel time value of the traveler mode choice.On the basis of this,based on the concept,meaning and application form of utility theory,this study introduces an "ideal travel mode",and uses the gray correlation coefficient of the proximity degree between the travel mode and the ideal travel mode as the utility function,then establishes travel mode choice Logit model.In addition,considering the travelers’ bounded rationality,reference point dependence and loss aversion characteristics,A travel mode choice model based on prospect theory and grey relational analysis is constructed in this study.Mainly by using TOPSIS idea,sets the positive and negative ideal schemes as two reference points and constructs an improved prospect theory value function based on gray relation coefficient,as well as establishes a logit model based on comprehensive prospect values,then calculates the travel mode choice probability.Finally,An empirical study on the travel mode choice of the Urumqi residents is carried out,and use the travel mode choice model based on prospect theory and grey relational analysis to analyze the residents’ travel mode choice.Based on this,the results obtained from the prospect theory are compared with the expected utility theory and the actual choice result of the traveler.The results show that the decision result based on the prospect theory model is consistent with the traveler’s actual travel mode choice behavior,which,to some extent,indicates the applicability and validity of the method based on prospect theory and grey relational analysis in the study of travel mode choice.