Research On The Mechanism Of Residents’ Travel Mode Choice Behavior Considering City Size

In recent years,against the background of rapid economic and social development in China,the contradiction between the supply and demand of urban traffic has become increasingly prominent.The level of traffic supply lags behind the traffic demand,resulting in traffic congestion and environmental pollution,and urban development is facing huge obstacles.To solve the traffic problems in urban development,improving the efficiency of the traffic system from the demand side is not only effective but also conducive to the sustainable development of the urban traffic system.In-depth study of residents’ travel mode choice can scientifically guide residents’ travel behavior and promote the use of public transport,so as to optimize the travel structure and balance the traffic supply and demand.This paper studies the travel mode choices of urban residents,analyzes residents’ choice behavior and choice mechanism,compares the differences among cities of different sizes,and provides a reference for the authorities to formulate traffic management policies tailored to local conditions.Based on the mode choice behavior and intention survey data of urban residents in Shanxi Province,this paper studies urban residents’ mode choice behavior and transfer intention.Firstly,the influencing factors and the mechanism of residents’ bus mode choice is studied.Based on the data of each cities,26 variables are selected as observation variables,which are personal attributes,preferences,traffic supply,transit travel behavior,travel characteristics and public transport behavior.The structural equation model of public transport travel mode choice for residents is constructed,and the partial least square method is used to estimate the parameters to analyze the impact on public transport choice and the relationship between those factors.Then,the data of all the investigated cities are integrated.On the basis of the initial mode structure,the structural equation model is constructed by adding the urban size variable to study the impact of urban size on the residents’ choice of public transport.It is found that all the latent variables have a significant impact on the public transport behavior of residents,while in different cities there are different influencing factors.Residents in larger cities are more inclined to take public transport than those in smaller cities.Then,study residents’ travel mode behavior is explored.Based on the data of large,medium and small cities,the paper uses the MIMIC model to correlate the individual attribute cause variables that affect the preferences with the indicator variables that explain the travel preferences,and constructs the residents’ travel preference attitude model.Then,the travel preference is introduced into the nested logit model,and 19 variables including travel preference are used to construct the SEM-logit model of residents’ travel mode choice.It is found that the personal attributes,travel activity attributes,environmental attributes and traffic mode attributes have an impact on the use of buses,taxis,private cars,walking / bicycles,but for each city’s travelers,the specific influencing factors are different.Then,the data of all investigated cities are integrated,and the SEM-logit model is built to study the impact of city size on travel mode choice.It is found that urban size is a significant factor affecting travel mode choice.With the increase of urban size,residents’ willingness to choose public transport travel increases.Finally,the paper studies the willingness of residents to transfer to other travel modes.In this paper,a binary logit model for the willingness of transfer of residents’ travel mode is constructed under the condition of 40% discount and 50% discount for each city,and the probability aggregate method is used to predict the rate of residents who are willing to shift travel mode in each city.It is found that a large number of residents are willing to travel by bus after the implementation the bus preferential policies,and the willingness of medium-sized cities is the highest,while travers in small cities are the most sensitive to discount rate.In view of the situation of subway in large cities,this paper constructs a binary logit model of subway travel mode transfer,and uses probability aggregate method to predict the rate of residents who are willing to take subway.Based on the above efforts,this paper provides a reference for urban traffic management departments to implement traffic demand management strategies and optimize the travel structure of residents.