The Forecast Of The Traffic Demand Of Belt Expressway

With the acceleration of the development of major cities in China,the urban area has expanded rapidly,and the urban traffic has been paid more and more attention.Up to now,there are 117 cities building belt expressway in order to adapt to the urban development.The belt expressway is a hub to connect several roads.It not only plays a very important role in alleviating the pressure of urban traffic,but also points out the direction of the development of urban space.Therefore,forecasting the traffic needs of the belt expressway accurately can not only provide the evidence for the optimization of the facilities of the traffic management department and the formulation of traffic management measures,but also has an important meaning of alleviating and controlling traffic congestion in the city,promoting the sustainable development of the city traffic.Based on the analysis and comparison of various traffic prediction methods,this article chooses the forecast method which is suitable for the belt expressway——exponential smoothing,ARIMA model and regression analysis.The article compares the advantages and disadvantages of the exponential smoothing method and ARIMA model in the prediction process of the monthly traffic volume,it chooses a more suitable method of the monthly traffic volume of the belt expressway--ARIMA model,and uses the model to predict the monthly traffic volume of the highway in the next coming year.Then,through the combination of regression analysis and ARIMA model,the article forecasts the traffic volume of highway toll and toll free on holidays.The prediction result shows that in the next few years,the monthly and annual traffic volume of belt expressway shows a gradual growth trend,with the popularity of the belt expressway toll free policy on holidays,the holiday's traffic volume of the belt expressway increases rapidly.