Research On Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Considering The Uncertainty Factors Of Power Network

Analysis method of steady state grid is the basis of the operation and control of power grid safety,stability,economy.The traditional power grid analysis method use deterministic theory.Along with the rapid development of large-scale flexible load intermittent renewable energy and electric vehicles,energy storage and demand response,there are a variety of complex coupling relations and interactive form,which increases the complexity of power grid stable operation.Under this background,this paper researches the method of probabilistic power flow calculation under the environment of "source network and load",which provides support for improving the level of power network security analysis.The main research contents of this paper are as follows: Section I introduces the research background of the topic,the analysis methods of the power grid uncertainty and the domestic and international research progress of the grid security analysis.In the second chapter,the classification method and the uncertain factors are studied,and the random probability model of the load,the conventional generator and the wind turbine is established.Third chapter researches the basic principle and algorithm flow of two typical probabilistic power flow calculation methods,Monte Carlo simulation method and semi invariant method Based on the Gram-Charlier series expansion,the simplified Von-Mises series expansion Moreover,the applicability of various methods is analyzed.The fourth chapter studies the correlation analysis method of uncertain factors,and puts forward the calculation model and calculation process of probabilistic power flow based on Cholesky decomposition,which is verified accurate and effective by a regional power grid in northwest China.The fifth chapter summarizes the full text and makes a prospect.