Research On Prevention And Control Of Sea Ice Accident Based On Fuzzy Fault Tree

Sea ice is one of the major natural disasters in winter in.and posing a great threat to safe production at sea.Water surface icing affect the normal production order and causes great economic losses;The accumulation of sea ice causes the operation of ships to be blocked and causes safety accidents;Sea ice makes the accident rescue work inconvenient and poses a threat to the safety of life and property at sea;Sea ice interferes with transportation.supplies,personnel exchanges and so on:Sea ice affects the production of coastal enterprises,aquaculture industry,offshore oil and gas development and so on,resulting in certain economic losses.Sea ice can easily siege ships,damage to ships,etc.,bring a lot of security risks for the ship sailing,resulting in greater economic and personnel losses,so the impact of sea ice on the shipping industry is particularly serious.At present.the last sea ice serious year in 2010 has passed many years,with the passage of time,the losses caused by the sea ice have been gradually forgotten,and there has been some slack in the prevention and control of sea ice accidents.Therefore,it is very necessary to earnestly study and analysis on sea ice accident,and find out the main factors causing sea ice accident,and focus on the main factors to do prevention and control work,try to reduce the losses caused by the sea ice accident.This article carefully combs the impact of ship sailing operations and analyzes the occurrence and development of sea ice accident,combines with the author's work experience of maritime scene supervision,and through visiting the experts of sea ice accident prevention and control work and on-site staff to seek their views.This article determines the logic analysis process,and constructs the fault tree model of sea ice accident,and qualitative and quantitative analysis the fault tree combining with the trapezoidal fuzzy number,and judges the various causes of sea ice accidents and the logical evolution of sea ice accidents,through the information of preliminary research and visit.This article analyzes the sea ice accident using the fault tree analysis method,the trapezoidal fuzzy number analysis method is used to determine the basic events probability and calculate the top event probability.Get the distribution of the importance of sea ice accident caused by different factors through the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the fault tree,the higher the importance of the factors on the occurrence of sea ice accident,the greater the impact.This article puts forward the safety proposal of sea ice accident prevention and control work through the analysis of the five factors with high importance.