Generation Expansion Planning Considering The Uncertainty Of Renewable Energy Generation

Facing the problems of fossil energy depletion,environmental pollution and climate change,developing new energy sources such as wind and solar energy,improving energy utilization efficiency,energy saving,emission reduction and developing smart grid have become the basic consensus of energy strategy of the world.However,the new energy,represented by wind power and photovoltaic,has the randomity in spatial scale and the uncertainty of random fluctuation in time scale.With the rapid development of wind power and photovoltaic,it will have a great impact on the power flow distribution,dispatching mode,grid stability,reactive power compensation,peak shaving and frequency regulation.In order to ensure the safe and stable operation of power system,it is necessary to take account of the influence of uncertainty of renewable energy power generation,and allocate renewable energy capacity rationally in the planning stage.On the basis of combing the advanced theories and research methods,considering the uncertain power capacity planning problem of renewable energy,and aiming at improving the robustness of system operation,the following researches are carried out.1)Aim at wind-storage joint operation system,a wind storage joint configuration method based on Kang s robust optimization(KRO)method is proposed.Firstly,the storage and AGC unit using linear balancing allocation strategy to consumptive wind power fluctuation is considered,then and the two-layer model of the overall economic and environment benefit is established.Turthermore,the uncertainty set of the wind power output is restructured,and the KRO method is used to transform the uncertain wind power output model into a definite form.Turthermore,a genetic algorithm is applied to search the wind power capacity allocation scheme,in which the minimum storage capacity that satisfies the system's robust operation constraints is allocated.The example analysis results show that the proposed wind storage joint method has the optimization effect compared to the wind directly allocation method,and it can achieve robustness and economic transformation by adjusting the robustness index of all constraints.2)Aim at power system with photovoltaic,a limit photovoltaic capacity calculation method based on distributional robust conditional value-at-risk(DRCVaR)is proposed.First of all,the maximization of PV access under the constraint of system security operation is considered.The PV access capacity is based on the worst distribution of illumination intensity information and the conditional value-at-risk of PV access capacity with a certain probability level.Then the model is transformed into a deterministic semi definite programming problem by using the dual theory.The example analysis results show that,compared with the conditional value-at-risk method,this method does not need random variable probability distribution information,but only need the moment information of random variables.At the same time,the proposed method have more robust results too.