The Research On Drifting Model For Containers Losing At Sea

With the continuous development of economic globalization and a sustained boom of China national economy,an increasingly demand has been boosted for marine container transportation and large-scale containerships activities continue upward trend.However,because of complex and changeable marine environment,container dropping accidents are of common occurrence under bad weather and leaves scattered drifting containers or damaged sunk ones,which will bring great risk for the navigation safety and its loaded dangerous goods may result in heaven burden for ocean ecology.It is of great importance to accurately figure out the drifting route and searching area in the first time and avoid blindness of search and salvage activities.The thesis researches on the container dropping accidents and assumes containers to be mutual independent random particles based on the analysis on affecting factors for containers drifting.Suppose each particle has all the properties of drifting objects and is affected by sea surface wind,current and wave force.Monte Carlo method is used to describe the probability distribution of random vectors and initial errors.Lagrange tracing of individual particles records the motion state of the object during the drifting process.After a large number of repeated experiments,the motion trajectories of all the particles constitute the probability distribution of the entire particle swarm.The article uses the MATLAB GUI function to realize the visualization of the drifting model.After importing the preliminary information of the chart,wind,current and perturbation into the input interface,containers drifting progress will be simulated,which will contribute to the judge of search probability area and the determination of best searching plans.The thesis verifies the case of container dropping accident with MV X ship in Jingtang Port.Five suspected container positions given by the relevant scanning units are all located near the simulated trajectory.The results display the accuracy and reliability of the model.Through programming,further drifting can be predicted for a longer time,which provides search suggestions and technical support for the next step salvage plan.