Analysis Of Causes Regarding To Ship Collision Based On HFACS And Apriori Methods

With tihe continuous development of world trade,the requirement of marine transportation continues to increase.As a result,the risks of marine traffic safety are also increasing.The marine traffic accidents seriously threaten the safety of human lives,property and the environmental of water areas.According to statistics of marine traffic accidents,the most frequent accident is a collision between ships,which also causes greatest losses.Therefore,studying the causes of a ship collision and grasping the factors leading to the accidents have a positive impact on preventing accidents and improving the navigation safety of ships.A ship collision occurs under certain conditions owing to the interaction among various factors.Due to complexity and uncertainty of the subjects involved,a structured and scientifically valid framework and appropriate data analysis methods is required to study a ship collision.In this paper,firstly,the HFACS framework model of the cause of a ship collision is established by combining the HFACS model with human,ships,environment and management factors based on the application of the model in other fields and characteristics of ship accident causation analysis.Secondly,the report on a collision of 182 ships is analyzed based on the model factors.The HFACS framework model is used to analyze the ship collision process,and accident factors are initially quantified according to categories.Moreover,based on the upper and lower layers of the HFACS framework,which is the evolution of accidents,the correlation between factors is analyzed by SPSS chi-squared test(x)and odds ratio(OR)and the strong association rules among the factors are analyzed by applying Apriori algorithm of data mining technology.Finally,the strong association rules derived from the data analysis are used to construct the causal chain of collision,further,the key points of management and control are determined based on the analysis results as a prerequisite for adopting scientific and targeted preventive measures.A new idea for the analysis of the cause of marine traffic accident is provided in the paper,the causes of a ship collision are comprehensively analyzed from the perspective of system.And both individual and organizational management are considered,the causes of a ship collision are identified from the dominant aspects to the hidden aspects.