Research On Stochastic Production Simulation Methods For Power Generation System

With the increasing scale of power generation system,the production and operation of power system is more and more complex.Scholars in various countries focus on how to improve the speed and accuracy of stochastic production simulation algorithm by the methods of convolution calculation and describing equivalent load duration curve(ELDC).Based on the research of traditional stochastic production simulation algorithms,aiming at the shortcomings of the calculation accuracy and the computation efficiency of reliability index,this paper proposes some improved algorithms,which is suitable for occasions with large scale and high accuracy requirement for reliability index.The main work is as follows:1)With the concept proposed based on the analyzing the characteristics and shortcomings of equivalent load duration curve,the residual load duration curve is combined with equivalent energy function method for stochastic production simulation.The residual load duration curve is the basic of other methods because of its conciseness and effectiveness.2)According to the discreteness in real power systems,the equivalent load duration curve can be described accurately with variable-width rectangles by rounding the abscissas of inflexions to integers after introducing reference unit.Then a sparse recursive convolution method is proposed with the sparsity of the curve's inflexions abscissas in the continuous integer space distribution.3)The interval-coordinated stochastic production simulation method is proposed in which the study period is divided into intervals according to the state of unit maintenance to consider impact of maintenance schedule.The working capacity of each hydro unit is determined by a comprehensive multiple-interval stochastic production simulation,and the stochastic production simulation of hydro-thermal units in each interval is conducted independently.4)Equivalent energy function method with constant range is using the residual load duration curve instead of the equivalent load duration curve.A two-stage fixed-range equivalent energy function method is proposed after analyzing its error source.It coordinates and optimizes the hydro-thermal power load position firstly,then simulates only the hydropower plants with idle capacities on the second stage.