Research On The Optimization Of The Passenger Vehicles Quota In Beijing Based On The Life Cycle Emission

Based on the well to wheel analysis and bottom-up energy system modeling method,this thesis estimates the future energy consumption and environmental emissions(including CO₂?SO₂?NO_x?PM_2.5?PM₁₀)of the Beijing private passenger vehicle fleet.The vehicle fleet is composed of the light duty gasoline vehicle?LDGVs?and battery electric vehicle?BEVs?which are sold from 2016 to 2020.The analysis of the future energy consumption and environmental emissions covers the whole lifetime of the vehicle,which begins from being sold and ends with being scraped.In the modeling process of the pump to wheel,this thesis considers the impacts of the vehicle age on the travel distance and the fuel economy,and the impacts of the battery degradation on the fuel economy.Based on scenario analysis,four scenarios set are given.Under each scenario,the energy consumption and environmental emission of LDGVs and BEVs were analyzed.The results show the battery degradation has a significant effect on energy consumption and environmental emissions of BEVs.Under all the four scenarios,BEVs can reduce the energy consumption and CO₂ emission compared with LDGVs.However,the emissions of air pollutants?SO₂,NO_x,PM?of BEV depend substantially on the cleanness of the electricity mix and the travel distances of BEVs.BEVs can increase the emission of air pollutants in those scenarios where coal dominates in the generation mix,or coal-fired power plants have higher carbon intensity,or BEVs has more travel distances than LDGVs.To explore the impacts of BEVs on urban air quality and energy consumption,this thesis separated urban emissions and consumptions from total emissions and consumptions under all the four scenarios.The results show urban emissions and energy consumptions have similar characters with total emissions and energy consumptions.Whether BEVs benefit urban air pollutants depends highly on the cleanness of the regional electricity generation mixes and the travel distances of BEVs.Given the existence of the trade-off among the energy consumption,CO₂ emission and air pollutants emission of BEVs and LDGVs,this thesis builds the multi-goals optimization model with the reduce of the energy consumption,CO₂ emission and health impact of air pollutants as the goals.Based on the multi-goals optimization model and the data of urban emission and energy consumption,this thesis analyzes the sale quota allocation problem between BEVs and LDGVs from 2016 to 2020.Sensitivity analysis of the weights of the three goals are executed to discuss the impact of the goal preference on the sale quota allocation.