Operation Reliability Assessment Of Catenary With Weather

Catenary,as the kernel of the electrified railway,assumes the vital mission of maintaining power supply for the electric locomotive,which relates to the quality of the train operation immediately.Therefore,it is very consequential for electrified railway to evaluate the reliability of catenary.According to the analyzation of catenary failure report,Bayesian Network has been used to the reliability evaluation of catenary.Firstly,the parameters of reliability has been extracted from the key components of catenary,the Fault Tree model of catenary has been established and converted to the Bayesian Network model,failure probability of the system has been calculated with exact inference algorithm,and reliability vulnerable spots of catenary has been confirmed by the diagnosing of Bayesian Network.Secondly,meteorological factor is identified as the whole-line major fault causation of catenary by the excavating of fault causation;therefore,the Bayesian Network of vulnerable spots aimed at meteorological has been established.Correlation analysis has been done between the failure probability of direct fault factors and the meteorological factor to evaluate the reliability of key components under extreme weather and explore the change rule of vulnerable spots of key components in complex weather environment.Dynamic Bayesian Network of carrier cable is established to identify the direct fault factor according to the failure mode observed from field so that the efficiency of inspection has been increased.Reliability allocation aimed at catenary system as well as contact suspension,a subsystem whose failure probability is highest,has been realized by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.Finally,the change rule of fault factor distribution of catenary key components in different seasons is analyzed with three cities as examples including Taiyuan,Shanghai and Shenyang,then preventing and controlling proposals about the main faults are given based on the analysis result.